Another man's opinion.
There is a saying in politics that incumbents can only beat themselves, they cannot be otherwise beaten. It seems to be a truism in Canadian politics.
My opinion is that the economy was the key. As long as the economy continued to at-least semi-perform, Bush was going to win because people would be content. I don’t think the war in Iraq is yet at a level that it really impacts on the psyche of the American people, so people voted on the personal things.
As to who will run next & win. Look at the last few Presidents: Bush, Clinton, Bush, Carter, and Reagan. Who would have predicted these winners 4 years before they won? In all the western democracies, politics & the public’s perceptions are currently very volatile. Vote swings are becoming incredible & in my opinion cupreous. Maybe democracies are chaotic systems much like the weather, which is fundamentally unpredictable once you move a week or so into the future.
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Jack
